KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
No, ≥1% · —
A carregar o livro selecionado…
—
Preço registado
No, ≥1% 67%Líder entre 8 opções
No, ≥1% 67%Qualidade do mercado
42 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
894,9 €
Contratos em aberto
10,7 mil €
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
— / —
No, ≥1%Spread
—
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 minutos
22/09/26, 03:00 UTC3/11/27, 15:00 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · No, ≥1%
A carregar o livro selecionado…
—
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes)
KalshiCalifornia Proposition 40 election: Yes vote percent
KalshiWill California Proposition 38 ($8.4B immunology research bond) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsWill California Proposition 42 (ban on new state personal property taxes) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsWill California Proposition 45 (faster CEQA environmental review) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsWill California Proposition 41 (tax limits and special-tax audits) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsRegras
If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:California Secretary of State
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by No minus the vote share received by the option that finishes immediately behind No if No wins, or the option that finishes first if No loses. If No wins, the margin will be positive; if No loses, the margin will be negative; if No ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Regras de cada resultado
- No, ≥1%
- If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- No, ≥10%
- If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- No, ≥4%
- If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- No, ≥13%
- If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 13%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- No, ≥16%
- If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 16%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- No, ≥7%
- If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- No, ≥19%
- If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 19%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- No, ≥22%
- If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 22%, then the market resolves to Yes.
