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  1. Voorspellingsmarkten
  2. Geopolitiek
  3. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

0.5% (24u)One-OffGeopolitiekRussia / Ukraine18d
PolymarketPolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kosten
Huidige impliciete kans
Ja
Ja 4%
Marktkwaliteit

64 / 100

Gemiddelde kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 2,7K

Liquiditeit

€ 42,6K

Hoge liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

3.5% / 3.9%

Spread

11.4%

Brede spread
7d wijziging

+0.4%

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden

17 dec 25, 22:4530 jun 26, 0:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

Yes4%

Regels

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

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Regels

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.