Huidige impliciete kans
45%+ 91%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
45%+ 91%Marktkwaliteit
54 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 18,4K
Liquiditeit
€ 1,9K
Lage liquiditeitSpread
5.0 pt
Gematigde spreadReacties
0
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 16 minuten geleden
2 okt 26, 22:17 UTC1 jul 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Voorwaarden van het handelsplatform
Bron: Polymarket
Deze voorwaarden zijn ter informatie; voor gesimuleerd handelen bij CoinRithm gelden eigen regels.
- Minimumorder (aandelen):
- 5
- Prijsstap:
- 1 procentpunten
- Kosten:
- Ja
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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Manifold MarketsWill Gemini 4 Argon be released publicly before October 15
Manifold MarketsRegels
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Argon model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.
- The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
