Huidige impliciete kans
50%+ 81%+0.1ptKoploper van 5 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
58 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 2,6K
Liquiditeit
€ 4K
Gemiddelde liquiditeitSpread
3.0 pt
Gematigde spreadReacties
0
7d wijziging
-1.5 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 minuten geleden
23 jul 26, 22:57 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
- The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/.
- If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again.
- If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used.