Will "You Can Just Buy Far-UVC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "You Can Just Buy Far-UVC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prijst No op 86.7% per 1 november 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will "You Can Just Buy Far-UVC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?

Will "You Can Just Buy Far-UVC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2027 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will "You Can Just Buy Far-UVC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

New pandemic in 2026?

• No+0.5pt98%
• Yes-0.5pt2%

Totaal volume

€ 1,2 mln.

24u volume

€ 10,8K

POLYMARKET

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

• No+0.4pt98%
• Yes-0.4pt2%

Totaal volume

€ 16,9 mln.

24u volume

€ 7,9K

POLYMARKET

How many US births in 2026?

• 3.56M–3.59M+11.0pt39.3%
• 3.53M–3.56M+2.0pt28%
• 3.59M–3.62M-2.5pt13.1%

+4 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

Pandemic in 2026?

• No96.5%
• Yes+2.0pt3.5%

Totaal volume

€ 919,6K

24u volume

€ 4,1K

POLYMARKET

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

• ↑5k99%
• ↑5.5k+0.5pt96%
• ↑6k+1.0pt89%

+13 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

• Before Jan 1, 202989.5%
• Before Jul 1, 202884.5%
• Before Jan 1, 202855.5%

• When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
• Plague declared public health emergency by which date?
• Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
• Ebola pandemic in 2026?
• Measles cases in 2026?
• Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
• How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
• Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
• FDA approves Retatrutide this year?