Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 76.3%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd9 dec 25, 05:22 UTC28 feb 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Federal employees at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many government employees will Trump cut?
KalshiHow much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump cut corporate taxes this year?
KalshiWill Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
2025 saw unprecedented impacts to the federal workforce.
- Will 2026 bring similar results?
- I will subtract the January 2026 reading of federal employee count from the January 2027 reading using the FRED federal employee counts given here:
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001
- If the difference exceeds 100,000 the answer resolves yes, and no otherwise.
Open markten
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 695,7K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 24,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 294,7K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 54,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 291,3K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 76% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026 afgewikkeld?
- Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026 wordt naar verwachting op 28 februari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: 2025 saw unprecedented impacts to the federal workforce.