Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
One-OffAITechSamenleving en cultuur2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 69%
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd28 apr 25, 04:20 UTC7 nov 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
By 2028 end, will there be AI-assisted therapy, where therapists visually explore a patient's thoughts/memories?
Manifold MarketsAI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?
Manifold MarketsWill there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsRegels
I have bet @CrypticQccZ at 9:1 odds that at least 100K people worldwide will belong to successionist movements/religions by November 7, 2028.
- I will pay them $900 if this market resolves NO, and he will pay me $100 if it resolves YES.
- There are two independent pathways to a YES resolution (the bet resolves YES if either group described below encompasses more than 100K individuals):
- Resolves to majority vote of 3 independent observers chosen by both of us on Nov 7, 2028.
- In the likely event that successionist groups exist in some form, but clear numbers are not available, judges will make an honest attempt to make a point estimate of the number of people who belong to groups matching the description of each of the following two pathways to a YES resolution.
- First pathway to a YES resolution: 100,000 or more people worldwide belong to successionist ideological movements or political causes.
