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Ja 62.9%
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37
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd14 jul 23, 20:00 UTC31 dec 26, 22:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Currently it's possible to craft simple tasks that most humans are able to solve, but LLMs can't.
- This market predicts whether this will still hold true by the end of 2026.
- Even if a clear explanation of the problem and of an algorithm to solve it is provided, today's LLMs haven't been shown to be able to answer correctly in a reliable way.
- While arguably most humans would succeed, if adequately instructed.
- In other words, this market means to compare the reasoning abilities of an average human with the top LLMs, at the end of 2026, in the fairest way I could think of.
- This market is about tasks meant to test reasoning abilities, that can be solved using only pen and paper, which can be understood and learned in less than 15 minutes, that you'd expect motivated kids to be able to solve.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 62.9% per 22 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026 afgewikkeld?
- Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026 wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Currently it's possible to craft simple tasks that most humans are able to solve, but LLMs can't.