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Verouderd8 mrt 24, 04:51 UTC2 jan 27, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegels
This market made in response to this article.
- One-hour AGI: Beating humans at problem sets/exams, composing short articles or blog posts, executing most tasks in white-collar jobs (e.g., diagnosing patients, providing legal opinions), conducting therapy, etc. One-day AGI: Beating humans at negotiating business deals, developing new apps, running scientific experiments, reviewing scientific papers, summarizing books, etc. One-month AGI: Beating humans at carrying out medium-term plans coherently (e.g., founding a startup), supervising large projects, becoming proficient in new fields, writing large software applications (e.g., a new operating system), making novel scientific discoveries, etc. One-year AGI: These AIs would beat humans at basically everything.
- Mainly because most projects can be divided into sub-tasks that can be completed in shorter timeframes.
Open markten
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Fentanyl99%
- Zelensky99%
- Cartel99%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 369,5K
- 24u volume
- € 368K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.3pt13.9%
- Gemini+0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,4 mln.
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
- Meta-0.1pt0%
+18 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-24.0pt68.3%
- Yes+24.0pt31.7%
- Totaal volume
- € 89,3K
- 24u volume
- € 79,4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,79%
- December 15,+1.0pt75%
- November 30,57%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 3,3 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 20264%
- Totaal volume
- € 85,5K
- 24u volume
- € 64,4K
- Best AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI market share this week
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- Qwen market share this week
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 70.1% per 22 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. afgewikkeld?
- 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market made in response to this article.