Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
4 feb 26, 17:47 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
In which months will there be a day the US gas average is at $4 or below?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Manifold MarketsWhen in 2026 will US federal government present a new narrative, with documentation, regarding UAP/UFO events?
Manifold MarketsWill any US federal judge be impeached in 2026?
PredictItWill any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
PolymarketGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- A US federal shutdown occurs when funding legislation required to finance the federal government is not enacted before the next fiscal year begins.
- This market resolves YES if any federal shutdown (full or partial) occurs during November 2026.
- A "full" shutdown occurs when none of the 12 annual appropriations are in force, while a "partial" shutdown occurs when only some bills have been enacted, so only unfunded departments and programs shut down.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from Congress, the Office of Management and Budget, or major news outlets confirming a shutdown has begun.
- The market resolves NO if Congress passes and the President signs appropriations bills or a continuing resolution funding the government through November 30, 2026 without a lapse occurring.
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 541,2K
- 24u volume
- € 30,7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 334,2K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,7K
- 24u volume
- € 10,7K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Totaal volume
- € 612,5K
- 24u volume
- € 6,9K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,3K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 30 november 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria