Will there be a major outbreak of avian flu before the end of 2027?
Gezondheid en geneeskundeOne-Off1j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 62.8%
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5
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 minuten geleden
24 jan 26, 17:12 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a major outbreak of avian flu is confirmed by the end of 2027.
- A "major outbreak" is defined as one of the following occurring before January 1, 2028:
- Sustained human-to-human transmission: Confirmed human-to-human transmission of H5N1 with at least 10 confirmed cases resulting from person-to-person spread (not occupational exposure to animals).
- Significant poultry mortality event: A single outbreak affecting 10+ million birds across one or more countries, requiring mass culling operations.
- Pandemic declaration: Official declaration of a pandemic by the WHO related to avian influenza.
