Zullen de VS of het Verenigd Koninkrijk tegen 2035 een frontier AI-laboratorium nationaliseren?
AIOne-Off8j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 65.3%
Voorspellers
43
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd20 mei 24, 14:41 UTC8 jan 35, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
PolymarketWhich AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?
PolymarketWill any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolves YES if any lab responsible for producing state-of-the-art AI models is seized by the government of the USA or UK.
- Also resolves YES if >67% of the technical staff of such a lab begin working for the government in a <60 day span.
- A SotA model is one that is arguably the best one in the world on some dimension, including vague properties like common sense reasoning.
- I'll be leaning on the side of things counting, here.
- Government grants and contracts do not count.
- The government must be in a position to directly be able to halt/direct the researcher's/engineer's work by normal managerial control.
