Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 73.7%
Voorspellers
26
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd5 jan 26, 23:28 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsDeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWill any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Referring to this comment by Nikola Jurkovic:
- I very roughly polled METR staff (using Fatebook) what the 50% time horizon will be by EOY 2026, conditional on METR reporting something analogous to today's time horizon metric.
- I got the following results: 29% average probability that it will surpass 32 hours. 68% average probability that it will surpass 16 hours.
- The first question got 10 respondents and the second question got 12.
- Around half of the respondents were technical researchers.
- I expect the sample to be close to representative, but maybe a bit more short-timelines than the rest of METR staff.
