Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute
One-OffAITechWetenschap14jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 95.4%
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden
12 jul 26, 18:40 UTC31 dec 40, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the first AI-driven computation (inference run) that successfully solves one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems is publicly documented or estimated to have cost over $1,000,000 USD in compute resource for inference.
- It resolves to NO if the first successful AI solver's run costs $1,000,000 USD or less, or if the first verified solution is found by a human without the direct output of an AI inference system.
- Definitions and Details:
- Millennium Prize Problems: The six remaining unsolved problems designated by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI):
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute afgewikkeld?
- Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2040 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria