Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 58.6%
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd11 aug 26, 14:29 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWill Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the first rocket launch from the UK's SaxaVord spaceport be successful?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiWhich rocket will launch from Earth with humans on board first?
Manifold MarketsWill a Human Die in a Rocket Launch/ and or Space by 2035?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the first orbital launch attempt of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket successfully reaches its target orbit.
- This market will resolve to NO if the first launch attempt fails to reach orbit (e.g., due to an explosion, a failure of the first or second stage, or any other anomaly that prevents the vehicle/payload from achieving a stable orbit).
- Key details and edge cases:
- Definition of Success: Success is defined as the rocket's upper stage successfully achieving orbit, or deploying its payload (or a simulated test mass) into the planned target orbit, as officially announced by Rocket Lab, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), or independent satellite tracking databases (e.g., Jonathan's Space Report or Space-Track.org).
- Booster Recovery: The recovery, landing, or reusable splashdown attempt of the first-stage booster is not required for a "YES" resolution, unless Rocket Lab defines the entire mission as a failure solely due to a landing anomaly.