Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 64.6%
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd11 aug 26, 14:29 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhen will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWhich is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in September 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the first orbital launch attempt of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket successfully reaches its target orbit.
- This market will resolve to NO if the first launch attempt fails to reach orbit (e.g., due to an explosion, a failure of the first or second stage, or any other anomaly that prevents the vehicle/payload from achieving a stable orbit).
- Key details and edge cases:
- Definition of Success: Success is defined as the rocket's upper stage successfully achieving orbit, or deploying its payload (or a simulated test mass) into the planned target orbit, as officially announced by Rocket Lab, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), or independent satellite tracking databases (e.g., Jonathan's Space Report or Space-Track.org).
- Booster Recovery: The recovery, landing, or reusable splashdown attempt of the first-stage booster is not required for a "YES" resolution, unless Rocket Lab defines the entire mission as a failure solely due to a landing anomaly.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 65% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ? afgewikkeld?
- Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria