Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 91.9%
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 minuten geleden
14 sep 26, 19:52 UTC30 sep 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Jacob Coxon publicly testify before congress by October 31?
PolymarketJacob Coxon Will Appear on the All-In Podcast with the Besties
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRegels
Two Jacob Co??n’s in AI safety — It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s bound to…
- Resolves YES if this unambiguously happened (eg someone sending me an email that was clearly meant for Jacob Coxon).
- Resolves 50% if it’s something more marginal / unclear (like if someone misspeaks).
- Resolves NO if I have no evidence this happened by the end of the month.
- I will be excluding any efforts that I suspect were done to manipulate this market.
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 87,4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 228,5K
- 24u volume
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 239,3K
- 24u volume
- € 53,3K
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 92% per 20 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September? afgewikkeld?
- Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September? wordt naar verwachting op 30 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Two Jacob Co??n’s in AI safety — It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s bound to…