Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
GeopolitiekOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 87.9%
Voorspellers
33
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd14 jan 24, 15:13 UTC31 dec 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketUkraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”.
- Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 581,3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 55,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 96,8K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 88% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”.