Will Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?
PolitiekOne-OffVerkiezingEuropa2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 81.5%
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd12 feb 25, 14:39 UTC15 aug 29, 22:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, has shown increasing popularity in recent polls.
- In early February 2025, a YouGov poll placed Reform UK at 25%, ahead of both Labour (24%) and the Conservatives (21%).
- The party is particularly attracting former Conservative voters, with about 33% of past Conservative voters considering Reform UK.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if both of the following conditions are met:
- Reform UK has the highest percentage in the final YouGov voting intention poll conducted before the next UK general election