What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?
PolitiekOne-OffVerkiezingEuropa2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Voorspellers
33
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
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Bijgewerkt 6 minuten geleden
12 jul 24, 17:20 UTC30 jun 29, 22:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?
- Please feel free to request additional answers to be added.
- I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.
- I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them.
- Maybe a separate market for that?
- For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other.