Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
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Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 20:28 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 70.9%
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7
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd8 apr 25, 08:57 UTC1 jan 30, 00:00 UTC
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KalshiRegels
This market assesses whether quantum computers will demonstrate a practical advantage in cryptographic applications before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution criteria: - YES: A quantum computer successfully breaks a currently secure encryption standard (like RSA-2048) OR demonstrates practical quantum-resistant cryptography capabilities that are deployed in production systems. - NO: No such practical advantage is demonstrated by the end of 2029.
- The achievement must be publicly verified by multiple reputable institutions.
