Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 68.5%
Voorspellers
148
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd28 dec 22, 00:30 UTC22 feb 22, 21:22 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first
- resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical community
- man lands on Mars when a live human body is separated from the Mars surface only by like a solid thing, such as a spaceship or spacesuit (edit: or both of course, but touching each other)
- Close date updated to 2222-02-22 10:22 pm
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211K
- 24u volume
- € 110,5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 21,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 69% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? afgewikkeld?
- Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? wordt naar verwachting op 22 februari 2222 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first