Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingDec 31st 2028 or earlier? 33%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
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30
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
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Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd4 nov 25, 14:39 UTC1 jan 29, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?
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Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI go public in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX acquire any major U.S. telecom business before 2028?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
On a recent episode of the Bg2 Pod, Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) was aaked about how OpenAI can have a reported $13ish billion usd in revenue and yet have over $1 trillion in spending commitments over the next years.
- Sam had a lot to say, but as part of his response said, "There are not many times I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times that it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous, 'OpenAI is about to go out of business,'....I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that."
- article about this here: https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-defends-openai-trillion-spending-2025-11
- Youtube video of podcast here: https://youtu.be/Gnl833wXRz0?si=hYqgzVM7qjlzjS-n (see ~12:00 mark for the question)
- This is a modest attempt to operationalize that, and I highly encourage any OpenAI bulls and bears to buy YES and NO respectively in this market.
- Each question will resolve YES if the below happens on or before the question's indicated date, and if either of the following occurs:
Open markten
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 85,3K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 184,9K
- 24u volume
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.4pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+43.3pt94%
- No-43.3pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 21,2K
- 24u volume
- € 20,3K
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.0pt78.2%
- 1.25T–1.5T-3.0pt8.9%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'...?
- Manifold Markets prijst Dec 31st 2028 or earlier? op 33% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... afgewikkeld?
- Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'... afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: On a recent episode of the Bg2 Pod, Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI) was aaked about how OpenAI can have a reported $13ish billion usd in revenue and yet have over $1 trillion in spending commitments over the next years.