Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 51.9%
Voorspellers
39
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd22 feb 24, 08:04 UTC2 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
Manifold MarketsConditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Manifold MarketsWill it be conclusively shown (through some way) that slowing the aging rate of AI researchers down (eg interventions decreasing DNAm age) will increase their net output/productivity by 2029?
Manifold MarketsOut of these AI researchers, who is the smartest?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegels
Refer to the winners of @/singer/who-are-the-top-10-ai-researchers-a
- This market resolves YES if one of the 10 winners of the above market claim that we are in a "winter" for AI at any time before 2030.
- Here are the names:
- Ilya Sutskever
- Andrej Karpathy
- Yoshua Bengio
