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Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Will it be conclusively shown (through some way) that slowing the aging rate of AI researchers down (eg interventions decreasing DNAm age) will increase their net output/productivity by 2029?
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
DeepSeek market share this week
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