Waarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 11:35 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 73.2%
Voorspellers
30
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd9 jan 23, 18:00 UTC1 jan 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Matt Levine have a Substack by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Matt Levine write/talk about a new mistake made at Citi Bank caused by bad UI
Manifold MarketsWill Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Vox create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Matt Levine, the Bloomberg opinion columnist.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
