Waarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 20:50 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 85.5%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd9 jan 23, 18:38 UTC1 jan 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen win a Nobel prize?
Manifold MarketsTyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028
Manifold MarketsTyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiNext Israeli Minister of Defense?
PolymarketRegels
Tyler Cowen, economist at George Mason University and blogger at Marginal Revolution.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
