Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?
BlackRockOne-OffFedPolitiekCentrale bankenMacro en economie3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 93.5%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd12 jan 26, 01:55 UTC15 mei 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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ForecastExWhat year will we see negative interest rates again?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target is set to 0.00% (or a range with 0% as the lower bound, such as 0.00%-0.25%) at any point during the tenure of Jerome Powell's successor as Federal Reserve Chair.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Federal Reserve Board at https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/.
- The market resolves NO if the successor's tenure ends without the rate ever reaching 0%.
- Powell's term as chair expires in May 2026, and the five candidates on the shortlist are Fed governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock head of fixed income Rick Rieder.
- The Fed has twice lowered the rate to 0.0% to 0.25%—the first time during the financial crisis of 2008, and the second time in March 2020.
