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Nee 90.5%
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22
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd18 feb 24, 13:33 UTC1 jan 31, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be used or tested by 2030
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRegels
Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.
- Of course, this is related to the question whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2030.
- (See https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c).
- Will resolve no if Iran does not have any nuclear weapons.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 581,3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 55,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 96,8K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 91% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2031 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.