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Gegevens van 24 jul 2026, 15:10 UTC · beleid pm-quality-3
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingOil blockade, regime stays 90.5%+1.9ptKoploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 dagen geleden
Verouderd29 mrt 26, 14:5531 dec 26, 23:59
Trends
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Oil blockade, regime changes7%
Volumetrend
$2023 jul2d aan data24 jul
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Resolution Criteria:
- Oil blockade:
- Defined as a significant disruption in Iranian oil exports compared to pre-blockade.
- Must be effectively imposed, confirmed by either an official U.S. announcement, or by at least two independent major outlets.
- Any of these will count: naval blockade, tanker quarentine or a seizure of Kharg Island, so long as it causes an impact similar to what we saw in Venezuela on quantifiable information (tanker count or export volume in pre blockade vs post blockade week, month or bimester.
- Half order of magnitude basis.