Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)
One-OffGezondheid en geneeskundeWetenschap2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 20:50 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 98.2%
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd30 dec 24, 15:58 UTC1 jan 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
Inspired by this tweet: https://x.com/esyudkowsky/status/1873740847159845193?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg
- This resolves YES if a scientific consensus (or even something halfway to a scientific consensus, like a leading theory that is covered substantially in the press, or several well-received, seemingly conclusive, and influential Nature/Science papers, etc) emerges that (1) testosterone levels are indeed declining on a societal level and this isn’t due to changing measurement standards, sampling bias in historical data, etc. and (2) microplastics are a leading cause (or one of several leading causes) of this.
- Things that will not be sufficient for a resolution:
- -studies showing that when you dose mice with high levels of microplastics, it affects their hormones (obviously it could)
- -individual journal articles (even a large number of them) that conclude one way or the other on this matter (I’m sure there will be tons of these, don’t be a “man of a single study”), especially those of the current paradigm which make broad claims from pinpoint experiments or correlational studies
- -a political consensus
