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Verouderd24 feb 24, 10:44 UTC1 jan 30, 10:59 UTC
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Will American opinion of AI improve in 2027, according to Gallup?
Manifold MarketsSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsWill a16z have a dedicated AI safety fund before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRegels
For example, if he decides that actually we should try to build ASI even if it means a great risk to the human race.
- Or if he decides that the creation of ASI doesn't actually pose a great risk to the human race.
- Update 2025-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Key Resolution Update:
- The reversal must include an explicit admission that Yudkowsky was wrong about his previous stance on AI safety.
- Merely adjusting his perspective (e.g., claiming he was only slightly off or that we just got lucky) will not meet the criteria.
- The explicit admission is the central and decisive component for a valid resolution.
