Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95.2%
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd13 apr 26, 09:04 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky have a debate for >$10k before EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegels
Examples that would resolve this market to "yes":
- An announcement by either Eliezer or Anthropic that he is involved in their research in some capacity.
- A paper is released co-authored by Eliezer and Anthropic.
- Eliezer joins Anthropic as an advisor or member of staff.
- Other ambiguous cases will be judged by me.