Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 64.6%
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 30 minuten geleden
6 mei 26, 06:39 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky be collaborating with Anthropic by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear in a movie that grosses over $20M at the box office before 2028?
Manifold MarketsParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketDuolingo language rankings · Top 10 in 2026?
KalshiRegels
Got paid $10k for a debate with 47f
- https://youtu.be/FIg4zQKBpAs?t=3467
- Said he'd raise his prices next time.
- Resolves YES if he raises his price AND someone pays it before EOY 2027