Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 78.6%
Voorspellers
245
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd17 feb 26, 04:15 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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PolymarketRegels
This market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2027, Amanda Askell is employed at Anthropic, and holds a position of comparable influence to her current role writing Claude's constitution.
- If Askell has left Anthropic or been significantly demoted / sideways-promoted, the market resolves NO.
- If her role has evolved but maintains equivalent strategic influence over Claude's development and values, it resolves YES.
- (Description edited from AI generation.)
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 79% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2027, Amanda Askell is employed at Anthropic, and holds a position of comparable influence to her current role writing Claude's constitution.