Will cold showers be shown to be an effective treatment for depression by 2030
One-OffGezondheid en geneeskundeWetenschap2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 82%
Voorspellers
22
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 minuten geleden
25 mrt 24, 04:33 UTC31 dec 28, 12:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?
Manifold MarketsBumetanide considered effective in the treatment of genetic Alzheimer's by the end of 2026?
FutuurHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiNew pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill there be a case of polio in the USA this year?
KalshiWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves positively if, by my estimation, there is convincing evidence that cold showers are an effective treatment for depression by 2030.
- There is currently some evidence- theoretical and empirical- for an effect, but there is a paucity of large studies specifically on the effect of showers on depression.
- I will consider the effect of cold showers demonstrated if there are at least two peer-reviewed experimental studies random allocation to conditions showing a statistically significant (or Bayesian equivalent) effect on depression which is, in my view, large enough to be clinically significant.
- Especially given the low cost of the treatment, the bar to being considered clinically significant is not especially high- for example, if 30% of participants fell below the cutoff for depression in the treatment condition, and only 20% in the control condition, I would consider that clinically significant.
- Although multiple controlled studies in a peer-reviewed journal are the most likely route to a positive resolution, I might accept other evidence at my discretion- for example, a single study large and rigorous enough that I consider it decisive on its own.
- I will not bet in this market.