Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 78.9%
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd27 jun 26, 21:53 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will any AI lab release a frontier model that performs O(n) sequence modeling?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill "Incriminating misaligned AI models via distil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsValorant: Any Questions Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2
PolymarketValorant: A Team vs Nova Esports (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 2
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, before 1 Jan 2028, there is either (a) an official Chinese government announcement, regulation, or directive, or (b) reporting from at least two credible outlets, indicating that the Chinese state has imposed a binding restriction, licensing/approval requirement, or prohibition specifically on the public release of open-weight AI models that exceed a defined capability threshold — where the threshold is tied to capability or scale (e.g. training compute, benchmark performance, or a designated "frontier"/high-risk tier).
- The restriction must be conditioned on model capability/scale.
- It does not count if it is merely an extension of existing content-moderation, or security-review rules that apply to AI services regardless of capability, nor if it applies only to closed/API-served models.
- Related: @/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas
