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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd27 jun 26, 21:53 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
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Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, before 1 Jan 2028, there is either (a) an official Chinese government announcement, regulation, or directive, or (b) reporting from at least two credible outlets, indicating that the Chinese state has imposed a binding restriction, licensing/approval requirement, or prohibition specifically on the public release of open-weight AI models that exceed a defined capability threshold — where the threshold is tied to capability or scale (e.g. training compute, benchmark performance, or a designated "frontier"/high-risk tier).
- The restriction must be conditioned on model capability/scale.
- It does not count if it is merely an extension of existing content-moderation, or security-review rules that apply to AI services regardless of capability, nor if it applies only to closed/API-served models.
- Related: @/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas
Open markten
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 11,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 38,7K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Totaal volume
- € 356,3K
- 24u volume
- € 13,5K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 11K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 66% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria: