Will "Incriminating misaligned AI models via distil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
AIOne-Off1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 85.7%
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Verouderd16 mei 26, 21:27 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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PolymarketRegels
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Incriminating misaligned AI models via distillation is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "Incriminating misaligned AI models via distil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 86% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will "Incriminating misaligned AI models via distil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Will "Incriminating misaligned AI models via distil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will "Incriminating misaligned AI models via distil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.