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Nee 83%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd8 nov 23, 10:01 UTC2 jan 35, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer than 365 days before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2035.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 83% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035? afgewikkeld?
- Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2035 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2035.