Waarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 13:55 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd8 nov 23, 10:01 UTC2 jan 35, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAssuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?
Manifold MarketsWill misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiWhen will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
KalshiRegels
YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2035.
