Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 93%
Voorspellers
35
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd21 mrt 26, 08:37 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
LimitlessWill China invade Taiwan by year's end?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China conducts a military invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2027.
- An invasion is defined as a large-scale, sustained military operation involving amphibious assault, airborne operations, or direct military occupation of Taiwan's territory.
- The resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg, etc.) and official statements from Taiwan's government or the U.S. State Department.
- Isolated military incidents, exercises, blockades, or cyber operations do not constitute an invasion.
- Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to accelerate its timeline for developing invasion capabilities from 2035 to 2027.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 423,4K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 95,4K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 extra uitkomsten
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will China invade Taiwan before 2027?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 93% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 afgewikkeld?
- Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will China invade Taiwan before 2027 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria