Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 87.7%
Voorspellers
595
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd5 okt 22, 13:22 UTC31 dec 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRegels
This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
- This question is answered "No" if there is:
- no military conflict between the two parties
- a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
- On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction.
- Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 643,2K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.6%
- September 30-3.5pt12.2%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt81%
- Yes-5.0pt19%
- Totaal volume
- € 9,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 261K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.2pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Zal China proberen Taiwan binnen te vallen voor eind 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 88% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Zal China proberen Taiwan binnen te vallen voor eind 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Zal China proberen Taiwan binnen te vallen voor eind 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Zal China proberen Taiwan binnen te vallen voor eind 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
- Waar wordt Zal China proberen Taiwan binnen te vallen voor eind 2027? nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Polymarket.