Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
RegelgevingOne-OffChessSport1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 89.4%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd25 jan 23, 17:36 UTC1 jan 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Bill Gurley create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill CFTC regulate cryptocurrency spot markets by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
KalshiWill the US create a new regulatory body for AI oversight in 2026?
FutuurRegels
Caroline Pham, currently one of 5 commissioners on the CFTC.
- Background: Caroline was the dissenting opinion with regards to how the CFTC approached reviewing Kalshi's event contracts.
- She also has the most Twitter followers out of the 5 current commissioners, and thus might be more likely to enjoy posting on Manifold.
- Inspired by @RichardHanania's How to Legalize Prediction Markets.
- See also @/SG/will-kalshi-receive-regulatory-appr
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
Open markten
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 182,3K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Caroline Pham, currently one of 5 commissioners on the CFTC.