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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd12 jun 25, 00:25 UTC31 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these predictions from @tanya_sabrinaaa will come true in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Three prongs:
- 1) China agreeing to AI pause or
- 2) open AI having $3T revenue or
- 3) open AI having 80% of global compute by eoy 2028
- Inspired by my offer to @ScottAlexander on Twitter
- https://x.com/abcampbell/status/1909178653050880152
Open markten
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 11,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 38,7K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Totaal volume
- € 356,3K
- 24u volume
- € 13,5K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 11K
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
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- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
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- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
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- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 88% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true? afgewikkeld?
- Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Three prongs: