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Ja 88.8%
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22
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd26 jun 24, 06:46 UTC3 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development
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PolymarketRegels
Eliezer Yudkowsky stated, in regards to AI risk, "Be willing to destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike." Is this going to happen? If an AI-aligned datacenter is attacked, this question resolves YES.
- Minor vandalism or protest-related damage would not qualify.
- Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if there is clear intentionality to attack a data center to oppose AI development, even if the attack is stopped before causing significant damage (e.g., if attackers are stopped after breaking in but before destroying equipment).
- Or if like the air strike gets destroyed or misses lol
- Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cyberattacks: Only physical attacks count for resolution.
- Ransomware or similar cyberattacks that don't cause physical damage would not qualify.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 470,8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 3 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Eliezer Yudkowsky stated, in regards to AI risk, "Be willing to destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike." Is this going to happen? If an AI-aligned datacenter is attacked, this question resolves YES.