Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?
Midden-OostenOne-OffRusland / OekraïneChinaLatijns-Amerika2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 72.9%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 47 minuten geleden
Vertraagd26 nov 23, 20:32 UTC31 dec 26, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Norway, Spain or Ireland take in more than 1000 Palestinian refugees before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill something happen in AI every single week between now and Dec 31st?
Manifold MarketsWill any country leave NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill a country leave BRICS in 2026?
PolymarketWill a country leave NATO this year?
Manifold MarketsWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
KalshiRegels
147 countries are currently party to the 1967 Protocol that extended the Geneva convention signed in 1951 (see the UNHCR website).
- Will any country leave the protocol by Dec 31, 2026?
- This market resolves YES if a party that was previously a party to the protocol decides to leave it.
- If a country splits in two and one country decides not to join within two years after being recognized by the UN, it will count as YES, otherwise, it will not be taken into account.
- If two countries regroup where one was a party of the protocol and the other was not, it will count as YES if the newly form country decides not to be party to the convention.
- The current list is: