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Verouderd21 dec 23, 15:29 UTC2 jan 28, 07:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.
- I don't have a particular compute cap in mind, as long as the agreement looks something like "no models larger than GPT-n" where n is the largest GPT in existence by the time the pause takes effect.
- Not every nation needs to be involved, but at a bare minimum it must include the US, China, and the UK.
- The only condition on the agreement I'll require for a YES resolution is some sort of bare minimum enforcement or inspection mechanism, so that mere pledges from nations not to train large models will not count.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 83% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.