Will an environmental factor be identified as key contributor to sporadic ALS by 1/1/2027?
GeopolitiekOne-OffGezondheid en geneeskunde1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 29 okt 2026, 14:12 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 83.8%
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3
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Verouderd17 feb 25, 21:43 UTC31 dec 27, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Regels
Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) occurs in two forms: familial (inherited) and sporadic.
- While familial ALS has known genetic causes, sporadic ALS (which accounts for 90-95% of cases) has no clearly identified cause.
- Scientists have investigated various environmental factors including exposure to heavy metals, solvents, radiation, agricultural chemicals, and military service, but no definitive environmental trigger has been established.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if by January 1, 2027:
- A peer-reviewed scientific study identifies a specific environmental factor as a key contributor to sporadic ALS
