Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 85%
Voorspellers
37
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd31 dec 23, 15:39 UTC9 dec 34, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegels
By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.
- ‘Twice as capable’ means twice as fast, or in half the interactions.
- Or, can persuade twice as many people from a pool than the best human can.
- Determination will, I imagine, be obvious.
- If it is not, then a determination process will be built at that point.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 85% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034. afgewikkeld?
- Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034. wordt naar verwachting op 9 december 2034 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034. afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.