Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 89.8%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd6 apr 24, 16:47 UTC2 jan 30, 05:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves YES if, by January 1st, 2030, there exists widely available technology that uses AI for the purpose of cleaning humans' anuses after defecation.
- This does not strictly have to be done by "wiping"; for example, a bidet-like technology would work, as long as it involves a technology widely agreed to be AI.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AI wipe humanity by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 90% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will AI wipe humanity by 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will AI wipe humanity by 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will AI wipe humanity by 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if, by January 1st, 2030, there exists widely available technology that uses AI for the purpose of cleaning humans' anuses after defecation.