Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95.4%
Voorspellers
43
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd19 jun 23, 15:47 UTC2 jan 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
This is an intentional duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8 .
- It should resolve the same in all states of the world.
- In other words, any price discrepancy is intended to be an arbitrage opportunity.
- It is meant to highlight the absurdity of the position, and make whatever AI risk messaging is happening more expensive.
- [link preview]
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This is an intentional duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8 .