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  3. Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
Manifold Markets

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

AITechWetenschapYearly23j
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsGeen KYC
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Manifold Markets
2026 0%
Koploper van 15 uitkomsten
Voorspellers

31

Vraagtype

multiple choice

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 5 dagen geleden

Verouderd
11 aug 25, 16:111 jan 50, 22:59

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

202721%

Regels

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

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Regels

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.