Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

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2026 0%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Verouderd

11 aug 25, 16:111 jan 50, 22:59

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Regels

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

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Regels

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

AI Tech WetenschapYearly23j

Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerd

Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling

2026 0%

Koploper van 15 uitkomsten

Voorspellers

Vraagtype

multiple choice

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden

Verouderd

11 aug 25, 16:111 jan 50, 22:59

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies

Gekozen uitkomst

202799%

Inzet (USDT)

Regels

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

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$1.5k

20 jul6d aan data25 jul

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Regels

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.